Cotton yarn traders worry about rising traders turn to find a way out

According to the feedback from cotton yarn traders in Qingdao, Guangzhou and Ningbo, the recent inquiries and outflows of port spot C21S, 32S and 40S bags are poor, and are mainly produced in Vietnam, Indonesia and India; Pakistan C8-16S The quotation and transaction price of the roving yarn are relatively stable, the inventory is insufficient and the cost is high, which makes the bargaining and negotiation space of the traders narrower. The transactions of JC21S and 32S in India and Vietnam are relatively light. Overall, imported yarn continues three trends: First, India, Pakistan and other foreign market futures yarn almost no transactions. The price of cotton yarn FOB, CNF and CIF is high and needs to be 40-60 days in advance to make the Chinese weaving factory and traders pay more attention to the signing enthusiasm. Secondly, the arrival and bonded quantity of blended yarn continues to increase, especially India T The growth of /C, CVC and T/R yarns is obvious. The imported yarns are in the form of “blended and cotton retreat”. Third, the number of bonded yarns in the port continues to decline, especially in India, Pakistan, JC32S, C40S and above. The trend of arrival and warehousing has become more and more obvious, while Vietnam and Indonesian yarns have remained stable.

According to the survey, the reasons why the imported cotton yarn is still half-dead are summarized as follows: 1. The reduction of yarns and the widespread use of cotton wool in cotton mills reduce the cost. Since mid-April, Shandong, Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, etc. The price of cotton yarn for large and medium-sized yarn mills has dropped by 200-300 yuan/ton; while the Indian, Pakistani and Indonesian yarns of port bonded and futures yarns have been relatively stable (the OEC21S and C32S bags with a tight supply are even reversed). 100-150 yuan / ton), so the OEC8S-C40S inside and outside yarn offer gap widened to 1,500 yuan / ton, weaving factories, garment factories, foreign trade companies have been red light on imported yarn; Second, India, Pakistan not only cotton fell Insufficient power, cotton yarn does not have much room for activity.

Although the ICE cotton contract in early April has fallen from 77.40 cents to 73.35 cents since the beginning of April, it has rebounded out of a V shape, but India's domestic cotton price has deviated. The S-6 ex-factory price broke 88 cents in early April. , and the EMOT SM 1-5/32" price difference upside down 3.5-4 cents / lb (the Far East main port CNF price), so the Indian mills signed a large number of US cotton, Australian cotton in 2016/17. Although China, Bangladesh, Pakistan The signing of the contract has fallen sharply, but the relevant Indian authorities believe that the demand for high-count yarn, high-yarn yarn and combed yarn will increase significantly in India, and the confidence in Indian yarn consumption will be full. Third, the exchange rate of India and Pakistan against the US dollar will be different. The continued depreciation of the exchange rate is not conducive to the import of cotton and cotton yarn.

Since the end of January, the US dollar index has shown a V-shaped trend as a whole. There has been no unilateral large fluctuations. In addition, there is not much news of the negative RMB and the data is disturbed. The RMB also showed signs of steady growth. However, some institutions and economists believe that although the renminbi has recently risen, there is still pressure for depreciation this year. In particular, the Fed’s interest rate hike and geopolitical risks are intensifying. The Chinese central bank faces major challenges. The policy needs to take into account the further depreciation of the renminbi and the control of financial risks. And steady growth targets.

In mid-April, cotton yarn traders are worried about rising gradually, but there has not been a large price drop phenomenon. The price of Indian big factory, brand A yarn C21S, 32S is still 22200-22500 yuan / ton, 24700-25000 yuan / ton (with Tickets), JC32S is as high as 26,800-27,200 yuan / ton, because OE yarn, C21S and the following low-count yarns are not only competitively lower than domestic yarns, but also have little operating profit, but also bear the volatility of cotton and cotton yarn prices. Risks, so some traders continue to turn, try or expand imports of India, Vietnam JC32S, JC40-60S, reduce the price difference with the same count domestic yarn, the profit is also slightly higher; expand polyester-cotton, polyester-viscose, cotton-bonded and other blended yarn Import operation can not only give full play to the low labor cost advantage of Southeast Asian countries, but also minimize the risk of pressure on goods; reduce the operation of cotton yarn and cotton, expand the import of grey cloths and fabrics in India, Pakistan, Vietnam, etc., and then re-export after deep processing in China or Domestic sales.

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